The American Petroleum Institute estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9.1 million barrels in the week ending May 15, according to a report. Analysts had forecast a draw of 3.4 million barrels, making the decline nearly three times larger than expected. The drop marks the second consecutive weekly decline after a 2.188 million barrel draw in the prior week. [4]
Despite the sharp weekly decline, U.S. crude inventories remain 26 million barrels higher since the start of the year, API data show. The year-to-date surplus reflects the buildup that occurred before recent draws accelerated amid tightening global supply conditions. [7]
Year-to-Date Surplus Persists Despite Recent Draws
Although weekly draws have intensified, the cumulative year-to-date surplus of 26 million barrels suggests that the U.S. market has not yet fully absorbed earlier excess supply. The surplus relative to the five-year average remains a factor that some market participants monitor, according to analysts. [7]
Gasoline inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the week, while distillate stocks dropped by 1 million barrels, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data. As of the prior week, gasoline inventories were 5% below the five-year average and distillate stocks were 9% below that average, the EIA reported. [4]
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Drawdown Reaches Record
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve lost 9.9 million barrels in the week ending May 15, marking the largest single-week withdrawal on record, according to Department of Energy data. Total SPR stocks fell to 374.2 million barrels, the lowest level since July 2024 and 351 million barrels below the reserve's maximum capacity of approximately 714 million barrels. [4] [3]
Historical analyses of the SPR have emphasized the importance of designing the reserve for quick and efficient movement of security stocks into the supply system to replace lost imports, as noted in a study on the reserve's capabilities. The current drawdown reflects a continued effort to alleviate price pressures amid disrupted global crude flows. [2]
Oil Prices Remain Elevated Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Brent crude traded at $111.10 per barrel on Tuesday, down 0.87% on the day, after President Donald Trump paused plans to attack Iran. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.18% to $104.20 per barrel. Both benchmarks were up roughly $2 per barrel week over week, according to market data. [4]
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin prices. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil passes, remains a flashpoint, and the IEA has revised its 2026 forecast to show global oil supply falling below demand amid the conflict. Cumulative supply losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels, the IEA reported. [5] [1]
Market Outlook and Analyst Assessments
Global oil inventories have fallen sharply since the start of the Iran war, with stockpiles declining by about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25, according to data from Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg. The draw has pushed global reserves toward their lowest levels since 2018. [6]
President Trump said the war in Iran would be ended "very quickly," and investors are monitoring peace negotiations. However, crude product markets remain physically tight, and Goldman Sachs has warned of extreme physical tightness in diesel and jet fuel markets. [4] [8] The combination of record SPR drains and rising domestic production — which reached 13.710 million barrels per day — may ease some supply concerns, but the pace of draws is accelerating, according to analysts.
References
- Willow Tohi. "Middle East tensions stir fears of 150 oil spike amid Straits of Hormuz crisis". NaturalNews.com. July 10, 2025.
- "Voice of the Marketplace A History of the National Petroleum Council".
- "Voice of the Marketplace A History of the National Petroleum Council".
- "Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom". ZeroHedge. May 20, 2026.
- "IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year". ZeroHedge. May 13, 2026.
- "Global oil stocks drop almost 270 million barrels since start of Iran war". Middle East Eye. May 9, 2026.
- "US Oil Exports Soar To New Record High As Inventories Tumble, SPR Drained Most Since October 2022". ZeroHedge. April 29, 2026.
- "UK Jet Fuel Rationing Risks Emerge As Goldman Warns Of 'Extreme Physical Tightness'". ZeroHedge. May 7, 2026.
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