Former Navy SEAL and author Matt Bracken argued in a Substack article published on Thursday, July 9, that any U.S. ground invasion of Iran would be a catastrophic error. According to Bracken, the size of Iran, its military capabilities and historical precedents all point to an operation that would fail at immense cost.
Bracken stated that Iran is 10 times larger than South Vietnam and has six times the 1968 population. He emphasized that Iran maintains significant defensive advantages that would make a land campaign far more difficult than past U.S. interventions.
The article was published as U.S. officials have publicly discussed the possibility of sending ground troops into Iran. President Donald Trump told the New York Post he would not rule out "boots on the ground" if necessary [1].
Historical Comparisons Highlight Risks
Bracken compared potential target islands such as Kharg Island and Qeshm Island to historic World War II battlegrounds. He noted that Kharg Island is roughly the size of Iwo Jima, and Qeshm Island is larger than Okinawa. During WWII, according to his analysis, the U.S. suffered 7,000 killed and 19,000 wounded in the month-long battle for Iwo Jima, and 12,000 killed and 30,000 wounded in three months on Okinawa.
Bracken wrote that any suggestion of a quick seizure of these islands is "ridiculous," given modern defensive technologies. He pointed out that the U.S. Navy has been forced to stay hundreds of miles from Iran's coast due to the threat from Iranian Shahed drones and anti-ship guided missiles [2]. Former military leaders have also warned that seizing Kharg Island would require a massive amphibious assault under constant missile and drone fire, with no guarantee of success [3].
Modern Military Threats and Logistical Hurdles
According to Bracken, U.S. warships have been driven out of the Persian Gulf, where they had operated freely since WWII. He reported that the former U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been evacuated.
Iran now holds de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, making any naval approach to Iranian shores extremely dangerous [4]. Even Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, warned that putting boots on the ground could result in "burning American warships" [5].
Bracken emphasized that Iran is water and energy self-sufficient and 90% food self-sufficient, rendering a naval blockade ineffective. Any food gap, he argued, could easily be filled overland from Pakistan or via the Caspian Sea and air routes from Russia and China.
The logistical challenge of supplying a ground force in Iran, which is larger than six Colorados with even higher mountains, would be immense. Author Andrei Martyanov noted that U.S. planning for a war with Iran often overlooks the extent of U.S. losses in materiel and lives, as well as the geopolitical consequences [6].
Strategic Consequences and Attribution
Bracken asserted that the U.S. has spent over $8 trillion on wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran without any clear benefit to American citizens. He called Trump's decision to launch assassination missile strikes during negotiations "dishonorable and frankly stupid." According to his article, a global depression is now "almost a certainty" as a result of the conflict.
Bracken concluded that "America will be correctly blamed for this catastrophe, and Trump will go down in history as the man who caused it." The former Navy SEAL's article reflects growing concerns among veterans and analysts that a ground invasion of Iran would lead to a prolonged and devastating conflict, with thousands of casualties and no clear exit strategy [7].
References
- "Trump and Hegseth Won't Rule Out Troops to Iran". Antiwar.com. March 2, 2026.
- Mike Adams. "Why Trump's War on Iran Would Shatter U.S. Military Readiness and Trigger Global Collapse". NaturalNews.com. January 30, 2026.
- "What It Would Take To Seize Iran's Kharg Island According To Top Former Military Leaders". The War Zone. June 11, 2026.
- Bright Videos Network. "2026-03-03-BVN-AIR DEFENSES WON'T HOLD".
- "Even Erik Prince Warns Iran Will 'Burn It Down' - Boots On The Ground Could Mean 'Burning American Warships'". ZeroHedge. March 31, 2026.
- Andrei Martyanov. "The Real Revolution in Military Affairs".
- "Veterans warn US landing could be 'more Gallipoli than Vietnam'". Responsible Statecraft. March 25, 2026.
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