Mark Mitchell, the top pollster at Rasmussen Reports, says that former President Donald Trump is now ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the state of Pennsylvania with a three-point lead.
Mitchell’s latest polling data from this pivotal swing state shows that Trump went from a virtual tie with Kamala to gaining a three-point advantage, this according to Rasmussen's September survey.
"When I polled Pennsylvania in September, I had a tie," Mitchel said during a recent interview with Benny Johnson.
"But that really was – you know – some of these major events they get a lot of press coverage on, they do get a juice for about two or three weeks. I think it is more what pollsters call a response bias than anybody actually changing their mind."
Mitchell emphasized that he believes this phenomenon reflects what pollsters refer to as response bias rather than a genuine shift in public opinion. Apparently, there was an overrepresentation of Democrats in that month's poll, while the most recent figures for October show that Trump now leads over Kamala in Pennsylvania.
"When we conducted our fieldwork, we found Trump up by three in Pennsylvania," Mitchell stated.
?MASSIVE
Rasmussen Head Pollster Mark Mitchell confirms Kamala’s cataclysmic polling collapse— puts Pennsylvania in Trump’s column:
“It’s done. Trump's winning Pennsylvania." pic.twitter.com/unNr3pdW0F
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 14, 2024
(Related: Have you checked out our report about how Wisconsin rigged the vote in 2020 and plans to do the same thing again this fall?)
Pennsylvania in favor of "Trump plus four," says Mitchell
The pollster further pointed out that, despite some surveys featured in polling aggregates like the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average still suggesting a slight tilt towards Kamala in Pennsylvania, many of these same surveys presented inflated expectations for Joe Biden during the 2020 election as well.
One such poll that Mitchell specifically referenced, the New York Times / Sienna poll, "oversampled supporters of Biden in 2020 by eight points," he revealed. Once this oversampling was adjusted for, the same poll ended up showing that Pennsylvania is actually in favor of "Trump plus four."
RCP, by the way, has said that Trump could actually be headed towards an Electoral College landslide, this at a time when mere weeks remain until Election Day. The polling aggregate forecasts that Trump currently leads over Kamala in five out of the seven most crucial battle ground states.
As promising as this seems for Trump, some of his supporters are still concerned that voters will become complacent and not even bother to show up at the polls.
"Do not get complacent," one of them wrote on X / Twitter. "Take five people with you to vote for Trump. Get every last possible vote for Trump in Pennsylvania!"
Another noted that the last day to register to vote in Pennsylvania is October 21.
"Fight like we are 10 points down," wrote another Trump fan. "Because with the cheating machine and the illegal vote, we are."
Someone else blasted Rasmussen polls as a "fraud" and a "joke," warning people not to believe anything the polling source states.
"Pennsylvania is direct entry into the White House," said another, writing that the state is "a make or break for Trump or Harris."
"A great deal of Kamala's support at the Hollywood / elite level is from compromised individuals who are afraid of being exposed once Trump is in office," expressed another.
"Have we forgotten about the millions of migrants they've allowed in through the border in battleground states?" asked another. "There have already been reports of these people in certain places admitting to being registered to vote or having already voted."
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