A recent poll by Rasmussen Reports has revealed a virtual dead heat between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with less than two months before the election on Nov. 5.
The poll, conducted among 1,893 likely voters in the United States, revealed that Trump has the support of 47 percent of potential voters while Harris has 46 percent. The poll showed this very slim margin separating the two candidates, with just three percent of likely voters being undecided and another three percent planning to vote for a third-party candidate.
Both Trump and Harris have successfully consolidated their party bases, with 87 percent of Republicans supporting the former president and 84 percent of Democrats lining up behind the vice president. Among crucial independent voters, Trump holds a significant advantage against Harris, with 46 percent supporting him over 41 percent for her. (Related: Poll: Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris-Walz ticket only sways more voters AWAY from Democrats.)
Demographic breakdowns also highlight contrasting areas of strength for each candidate. For instance, Trump leads among White voters (51 percent) and Hispanic voters (52 percent), while Harris has garnered strong support from Black voters, with 67 percent favoring her compared to 29 percent for Trump. Meanwhile, the two candidates are neck-and-neck among non-Black minority voters, with 40 percent backing Trump and 41 percent siding with Harris.
When it comes to ideological voters, Harris enjoys overwhelming support from liberals, with 87 percent backing her candidacy, while Trump maintains 74 percent support from conservative voters. Moderates, a key voting bloc in swing states, lean toward Harris, giving her 53 percent of their support compared to the 38 percent for Trump.
Socio-economic factors also play a significant role in this election. Voters earning more than $200,000 annually favor Harris by a 10-point margin, 53 percent to 43 percent. Conversely, Trump performs better among lower-income voters, holding a similar 10-point advantage among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 annually.
Other polls also show that Trump and Harris are stuck in a dead heat
The tight race between Trump and Harris is also reflected in other polls.
For instance, in a poll from the New York Times, Sienna College and the Philadelphia Inquirer, Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 50 percent to 46 percent. However, in each of these states, the candidates' results fall within the margin of error, indicating the great uncertainty and fluidity in the race.
A poll jointly conducted by The Hill and Emerson College, released on Sept. 19, also highlights the tightness of the race in seven critical states. The poll shows Trump has a small advantage in Arizona (49 percent to 48 percent), Georgia (50 percent to 47 percent), Pennsylvania (48 percent to 47 percent) and Wisconsin (49 percent to 48 percent). Meanwhile, Harris is leading by a slim margin in Michigan (49 percent to 47 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 48 percent). In Nevada, the two candidates are tied at 48 percent.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, commented on the razor-thin status of the race.
"There has been modest movement in the presidential election since the Emerson swing state polls before the presidential debate," Kimball said. "In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point. Trump's support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Harris’ support decreased by a point in Michigan and Nevada, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained two points and Harris lost two."
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