The Democratic Party's long-standing hold in Pennsylvania appears to have deteriorated as evidenced by recent voter registration data in the Keystone State, with many voters switching to the Republican Party.
According to figures from the Pennsylvania Department of State, nine million residents signed up during the voter registration period that ended on Oct. 21. Of this number, four million were Democrats while 3.7 million were Republicans. An additional 1.4 million registered as independents or as belonging to third parties.
Despite this, the Democrats still represent 44 percent of registered voters compared to the 40 percent from the GOP. Nevertheless, the loss of 257,281 registered Democrats compared to the GOP gain of 428,537 signals a potential vulnerability.
Notable shifts occurred in key areas known for voting blue – including Philadelphia, where 18,928 Democrats switched affiliations compared to just 3,401 Republicans. In Allegheny County, 6,564 Democrats jumped ship while only 2,202 Republicans did. Bucks County, which previously played a role in swinging statewide outcomes, saw 2,089 Democrats switch – nearly 500 more than the 1,624 Republicans who left their party. (Related: IT CAME TRUE: Analysis warns Democrats were plotting to steal elections in key battleground states during midterms.)
The 2024 numbers reveal a dramatic contraction in the Democratic advantage compared to the 2020 election cycle when Democrats held a wider lead in registered voters by nearly 686,000. The latest data shows that the margin has shrunk to just 297,824, reducing the Democratic lead by more than half in the last four years.
These changes could impact the presidential election in a state incumbent President Joe Biden won by just 1.17 percentage points in 2020. This, in turn, could have significant implications for both parties, as the Keystone State's 19 electoral votes are widely regarded as crucial to a 2024 win.
Harris campaign struggling to connect with Pennsylvania voters
The report about the registered voter data comes after concerns within the Democratic Party that the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz – the party's presidential and vice presidential nominee – is struggling to connect with voters in Pennsylvania.
Reports suggest that the campaign struggles due to poor campaign management, limited relationships with local Democratic leaders and a lack of understanding of key areas like Philadelphia. The campaign staff have not allegedly involved local politicians in events or effectively used surrogates, leading to dissatisfaction among Democrats.
POLITICO reported a sense of restlessness about Harris' approach after it spoke with 20 Democratic officials and allies. One prominent lawmaker the outlet spoke to said Harris has "become toxic" for Pennsylvania.
"Our campaign is running the largest and most sophisticated operation in Pennsylvania history," Harris' national campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said. "While Trump's team still refuses to tell reporters how few staff they have in the state, we have 50 coordinated offices and nearly 400 staff on the ground."
"While the Trump campaign closed its 'minority outreach offices,' we invested in targeted advertising to Black and Latino voters starting in August of 2023 and have now spent more than any previous presidential campaign on outreach to these communities. The vice president is also campaigning aggressively in Pennsylvania – spending one out of three days in the state in September."
Meanwhile, the Trump-Vance campaign quickly capitalized on the registration shifts: "Kamala Camp HQ is no doubt asking what the heck their 400 paid staffers and 50 offices in Pennsylvania have been doing this whole time since their only output seems to be drumming up some meaningless stories about office openings and their supposedly well-oiled ground game."
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