Former Israeli Ministry of Defense ombudsman Reserve Gen. Itzhak Brik has warned that Israel "faces collapse in less than a year" if the ongoing conflict with Palestinian and Lebanese resistance groups continues at its current pace.
In an opinion piece published by Haaretz on Aug. 21, Brik asserts that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has begun to "sober up," noting Gallant's recent criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promises of "total victory" in Gaza, which Gallant dismissed as "gibberish."
Brik suggests that Gallant is coming to terms with the reality that the war has lost its purpose.
"We are sinking into the mud, losing fighters who are killed and wounded, with no chance of achieving the main goal," Brik writes. He warns that if the war of attrition against Hamas and Hezbollah persists, Israel could face collapse within a year.
Brik outlines several critical threats facing Israel ten months into its campaign in Gaza, including escalating attacks within Israeli territory, a manpower crisis in the military due to high casualties, a deteriorating economy exacerbated by global calls for boycotts, potential embargoes on arms shipments, and growing internal divisions and hatred that could destabilize the country. (Related: Israel is on the verge of economic and mental health collapse as corporations shutter operations and new projects are cancelled)
"All paths of political and military leadership lead Israel towards a precipice … Israel is in an existential spiral, and it may soon reach a point of no return," Brik concludes.
Brik's dire warning comes amid revelations from Israeli political sources that Prime Minister Netanyahu has not altered his stance on the terms for a Gaza ceasefire following a recent conversation with President Joe Biden.
Ceasefire negotiations are expected to resume in Cairo in the coming days, but Hamas will be absent from the talks.
The Palestinian group has rejected a new American-backed proposal and remains firm in its demand for Israel to adhere to the terms of an earlier agreement made on July 2. Hamas argues that the revised proposal would grant Israel "more time to continue its war of genocide against our people."
Israel continues cross-border conflict with Hezbollah
The Israel-Lebanon border situation remains tense, marked by frequent exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah.
Despite fears of a major conflict following the Oct. 7 attacks, both sides have mostly engaged in low-intensity skirmishes, though the risk of severe escalation and mass casualties remains high.
Over 400 people have been killed in Lebanon and 30 in Israel, with about 150,000 displaced. This ongoing conflict, which began in earnest after Hezbollah's 1982 formation, saw its most intense moment during the 2006 war triggered by Hezbollah’s kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
The war caused significant damage and cost Lebanon over $10 billion in reconstruction, largely funded by Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Today, the geopolitical landscape makes future reconstruction even more challenging.
In northern Israel, residents fear Hezbollah attacks, while those in southern Lebanon suffer from IDF strikes, exacerbating Lebanon’s fragile socioeconomic situation.
Hezbollah’s arsenal, supplied by Iran and Russia, includes over a million rockets and advanced weaponry.
Despite Israel's superior missile capabilities, it faces internal and external pressures, highlighted by Benny Gantz's resignation from the war cabinet and growing international criticism over its Gaza operations.
The West Bank adds to Israel’s security challenges, with rising violence and criticism of its handling of the Gaza conflict. International support for Israel is waning as global discontent grows. Hezbollah’s controversial role and its ties with Iran further complicate the region’s stability.
The situation remains precarious, with no strong desire for further escalation amid significant regional and international pressures.
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