EU to expedite plans for a common defensive union ahead of possible Trump victory in 2024

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen encouraged a fully-fledged European defense industry strategy during her fifth State of the European Union address on Sept. 13 at a European Parliament session in Strasbourg. She also detailed the skeletal framework for the European Union's (EU) legislative agenda for 2024.

Von der Leyen confirmed that the EU would expedite plans for a common defensive union. She also promised to arrange an integrated military-industrial base in the next legislative term. According to von der Leyen, the EU will continue to develop the European defense industry strategy to find out how it can support the industry "to ramp up the production of critical equipment."

In the past, European leaders have expressed concerns about the possibility of an isolationist America after 2024 and the consequences of a second Donald Trump administration for the EU.

Toward the end of her speech, von der Leyen said that while they started to build the European Defense Union with 27 members, she believes they can finish it with 30 or more members, alluding to an expanded EU with Eastern European and Western Balkan countries.

Meanwhile, French Commissioner Thierry Breton talked about how a common EU military-industrial complex would appear in reality. There is already speculation in Brussels that Breton has his eye on replacing von der Leyen as president of the European Commission.

Breton is a staunch supporter of European "strategic autonomy," which asserts "greater EU independence from Washington as voiced by French President Emmanuel Macron in his comments about future relations with China." (Related: Trump: FEARMONGERING about new COVID-19 variants a "lunatic ploy" to rig 2024 elections.)

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After von der Leyen's speech, Breton posted on LinkedIn to announce that the return of "high-intensity conflict" to Europe emphasizes the need for a unified EU military strategy moving forward. He added that it is also crucial to adapt armies and industries "to new realities and new threats."

Breton explained that while the security of supply and the ability to scale up has become crucial, it is also important to "produce more and faster, without depending on others." He warned that injecting more money in a "dispersed and uncoordinated way" would worsen the EU's inefficiencies.

EDIRPA could be a starting point for a more ambitious common defense agenda

Additionally, Breton mentioned that the EU was working on a European Defense Investment Program (EDIP). The bloc, through the European Defense Fund, has launched "new instruments" such as the European Defense Industry Reinforcement through the common Procurement Act (EDIRPA).

The EDIRPA is meant to "consolidate demand and support joint acquisition with 300 million euros," along with a 500 million euros Instrument for Direct Support to Industrial Ammunition Production Capacity.

Euro federalists also hope to leverage the Russo-Ukrainian crisis to achieve their long-term goals of European military integration, as the alliance starts acquiring arms as a single unit for the first time. On Sept. 12, an overwhelming number of European MEPs supported the EDIRPA, with 530 voting in favor, 66 against and 32 abstaining.

Michael Gahler, a German conservative MEP and co-rapporteur for the Foreign Affairs Committee, explained that the EDIRPA would be a historic moment for EU defense and that it would help establish the first EU instrument for joint procurement by member states.

Gahler added that the EDIRPA could help the EU refill its stocks, increase interoperability among the armed forces, strengthen the industry and offer more unwavering support for Ukraine.

He warned that if there was a historical crisis, EDIRPA could only "be a starting point for a far more ambitious common defense agenda." Gahler added that if the Russia-Ukraine war taught the EU one thing, it's that the EU is not prepared to defend itself.

He warned that the EU can no longer afford to ignore that and it is crucial to prepare and address the problem before it is too late.

Together with von der Leyen’s aforesaid comments, the EC, under the current Spanish presidency, also organized a conference in Brussels evaluating the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), a key defense initiative meant to give rise to broader EU integration.

At the Brussels conference, Jiri Sedivy, the European Defense Agency Chief Executive said that "a bold and concrete PESCO strategic review" will be a sound political signal towards citizens and partners or competitors. It will also confirm that the governments of EU Member States are politically willing to improve common security and defense.

Can Trump win in 2024?

Observers say Trump's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 is looking very much like his victorious run in 2016. Just like in the 2016 campaign cycle, Trump faces primary challengers who could split the opposition vote and enable him to win primaries and delegates with only 30 percent of the vote.

But the Trump of 2024 has different advantages and disadvantages.

He's a former president who controls the majority of the Republican Party. However, he also faces two criminal trials that could bring to light embarrassing details of his conduct while two other investigations are still pending.

Republican pollster Whit Ayres said Trump is "the favorite," but many events could still take place between now and the nomination. Many of those events are unprecedented, making them impossible to predict.

But it is safe to say that Trump looms large even in Europe.

Visit Trump.news for more news related to Donald Trump.

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