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Forecast model predicts Donald Trump will win back White House, Republicans to take Senate and maintain House majority
By Arsenio Toledo // Jun 03, 2024

A new election forecast predicts that former President Donald Trump will win the presidential election and that the Republican Party will take back control of the Senate and maintain its majority in the House of Representatives.

The forecast model, released on Wednesday, May 29, by elections results website Decision Desk HQ and mainstream media outlet The Hill, gave Trump a 58 percent chance of winning back control of the White House.

Both the Republicans and the Democrats are expected to intensify their campaign operations as the election draws closer, aiming to secure the support of the dwindling number of undecided voters and to bolster their support in critical regions, such as the six swing states and the several "toss-up" seats in the Senate and House.

Forecast model predicts Republican takeover of Congress

The forecast model shows the GOP has a 79 percent chance of taking back the Senate and a 64 percent chance of maintaining its hold over the House of Representatives. (Related: POLL: Trump still favored to win presidential race despite indictments.)

The forecast model predicts that the GOP will take back the Senate with 52 seats compared to just 46 for Democrats and two for independents – Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, respectively.

In the House of Representatives, the model predicts a Republican hold with 222 seats for the GOP – the same number the Republicans won in 2022 – and 213 for Democrats. The House has 17 "toss-up" seats, 10 of which are predicted to be won by Republican candidates.

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The possible shift to the Republican Party taking total control of Congress could significantly impact legislative priorities for the next administration and its ability to confirm appointments.

Trump predicted to win election with at least 280 Electoral College votes

As of May 29, the model predicts that Trump will win the November election with 280 Electoral College votes to Biden's 258. Just 270 are needed to win the presidency.

The model lists six swing states for the election – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of these six, four are currently leaning toward voting for Trump while just two are leaning toward Biden.

Currently, Trump is given a 63 percent of winning Georgia, a 59 percent chance of winning Arizona, a 56 percent chance of winning Wisconsin and a 54 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the forecast gave Biden just a 54 and 51 percent chance of winning Michigan and Nevada, respectively. Biden's 51 percent chance of winning Michigan, formerly a Democrat stronghold, is considered to be basically a statistical tie.

Nineteen states – including Maine as the statewide popular vote winner – the District of Columbia, the second district of Nebraska and the first district of Maine are either "likely" to vote for Biden or are "safe" votes for him. Meanwhile, 25 states – including Nebraska as the statewide popular vote winner – the first and second districts of Nebraska and the second district of Maine are either "likely" to vote for Trump or are "safe" votes for him. This excludes the six swing states.

Learn more about Trump, the GOP and how they are preparing for the November 2024 presidential election at VoteRepublican.news.

Watch this clip from Fox News discussing how polls show that Trump's popularity is growing in Democratic Party strongholds.

This video is from the NewsClips channel on Brighteon.com.

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POLL: Trump LEADS Biden in five of six key swing states.

POLL: Trump favored to win as voters doubt Biden's ability to complete another term.

Trump LEADS Biden by 8 points in latest Rasmussen Reports poll.

Sources include:





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