Exactly as I warned would happen in recent podcasts, China has announced an immediate ban on exports to the United States of critical minerals including gallium, germanium, and antimony. The decision comes in direct retaliation to President Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on any nation joining the BRICS financial settlement system.
This move by Beijing is seen as the latest chapter in an ongoing trade war that shows no signs of abating. China’s Ministry of Commerce cited national security concerns, effectively cutting off supplies of these essential materials to U.S. industries, including aerospace and defense sectors. This will have crippling impacts affecting U.S. military readiness and national defense.
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Gallium and germanium are crucial for semiconductor manufacturing, fiber optic cables, solar cells, and infrared technology. Antimony has extensive use in ammunition, nuclear weapons, night-vision goggles, and batteries. With China accounting for 59.2% of refined germanium production and a staggering 98.8% of refined gallium output last year, the impact on global supply chains is already being felt.
"China has been signalling for some time that it's willing to take these steps, so when is the U.S. going to learn its lesson?" warns Todd Malan of Talon Metals, highlighting how such restrictions could leave American industries vulnerable.
The ripple effects are already evident in global markets. Antimony trioxide prices have surged by 228% since the beginning of this year, reaching an eye-watering $39,000 per metric ton. Experts predict that such dramatic price hikes will inevitably lead to even higher inflation rates in the U.S., a country already grappling with economic uncertainty.
President Trump's escalating rhetoric and aggressive policies are not only harming American businesses but also consumers who stand to suffer from rising prices across various sectors. "We must get serious about American mineral sources," said Jon Cherry, CEO of Perpetua Resources, which is developing a domestic antimony mine in Idaho. "It's time to end our reliance on China and secure our future."
The aerospace industry could be particularly hard-hit. Gallium arsenide semiconductors are vital components in radar systems used by military aircraft. With China cutting off supplies, it's not just about higher prices; there's a real risk of shortages that could impact national defense capabilities.
"The move is a considerable escalation of tensions in supply chains where access to raw material units is already tight in the West," argues Jack Bedder from consultancy Project Blue.
The U.S. government has vowed to respond, but the path forward remains unclear. The White House spokesperson's statement that they would take "necessary steps" was vague at best. Industry leaders warn that such responses could further escalate tensions.
The coming months will be crucial for both economies, with the potential for even greater instability if cooler heads don't prevail. As American consumers brace themselves for higher prices and possible shortages of goods, there's a growing awareness that trade wars truly do have no winners.
It’s time for leaders on both sides to take a step back from the brink and seek more collaborative solutions. The future stability of global supply chains – and by extension, economic prosperity – hangs in the balance. Perhaps Trump should focus on finding ways to help America compete in global trade rather than trying to bludgeon everybody else into using the U.S. dollar, a currency that is relentlessly counterfeited (printed) and manipulated by the U.S. empire.
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Sources for this article include:
Mining.com
NewsTribune.com
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