Climate alarmism, global warming orthodoxy, and end-of-the-world climate doom continue to dominate mainstream media. For example, in 2023, Financial Times Science Editor, Clive Cookson, warned of a "catastrophic cascade of extreme environmental events" stemming from the declining ice in the Antarctic Sea, while the BBC described reduced ice levels as a "worrying new benchmark." Global figures like John Kerry are now pushing the U.S. to declare a “climate emergency.” The failed former presidential candidate now recommends that the U.S. government take action to “to get people to behave.”
However, a comprehensive new study paints a different picture of the “climate crisis.” Sea ice isn’t in a perpetual state of decline, as we are led to believe. The latest study investigates the natural variability in ice shelves in the Antarctic Sea and finds that human activity has no noticeable effect on the ice retreating and expanding. The study, published earlier this year, challenges the prevailing narrative about the impacts of global warming on sea ice, offering new insights into the complex interactions between atmospheric and oceanic factors that shape Antarctica's ice cover.
Natural factors drive fluctuations in sea ice
Antarctic sea ice plays a crucial role in Earth's climate system. Each year, the sea ice expands and contracts over approximately 16 million square kilometers, influencing global ocean circulation through processes like brine rejection and freshwater input, which affect the Southern Ocean's primary productivity and heat exchanges.
This new study provides an in-depth analysis of these sea ice fluctuations using a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis, which revealed distinct modes of sea ice variability. One of the driving factors identified is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which enhances the strength of the circumpolar westerlies and leads to surface cooling via increased northward Ekman heat transport. The IPO explains much of the long-term gradual increase in sea ice.
A second factor, tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), accounts for variability in the Ross Sea, while a third factor, linked to the eastern Pacific and the Amundsen Sea Low, explains much of the pan-Antarctic Sea ice variability. This third factor is particularly significant, as it also correlates with periods of abrupt ice loss.
Climate changes are natural and do not pose an “existential threat” to humanity
Since satellite records began in 1979, Antarctic Sea ice has exhibited significant variability. A gradual increase in sea ice extent was observed from 2000 to 2014, which researchers have largely attributed to decadal climate variability, including Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, which strengthens circumpolar westerlies, causing surface cooling via increased northward Ekman heat transport. Other factors such as increased freshwater input from ice shelf melt and changes in ocean circulation have also been proposed as contributors to the gradual expansion.
However, the period from 2016 to 2019 saw a dramatic and abrupt decrease in sea ice, particularly in the Weddell Sea, the Indian sector, and the Ross Sea. This sudden decline has been linked to weakened circumpolar westerlies, driven by shifts in the Southern Annular Mode and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, alongside the effects of ocean preconditioning that led to a build-up of subsurface heat. This variability, including both the gradual expansion and sudden declines, has posed challenges for climate models, which struggle to accurately replicate the magnitude and patterns of Antarctic Sea ice trends.
These findings highlight the complexity of the Earth’s climate cycles and suggest that natural climate factors are far more influential than human activities in shaping ice cover. The global "Net Zero" carbon narrative, which is used to justify extreme climate policies, faces increasing scrutiny as governments conspire to limit farming and energy production, and control economies, family size and human behavior. We inhabit a living, breathing planet that has it's own processes, which we still don't fully understand.
Sources include:
TC.Copernicus.org [PDF]
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