When Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, conventional wisdom predicted Kyiv's swift fall and Ukraine's inability to withstand the far larger Russian military. But the Ukrainian army, with substantial Western aid, not only resisted Russia's advances but also managed to push back.
However, nearly three years into the conflict, the situation has shifted greatly in Russia's favor.
While it is admirable that Ukraine has survived for over 1,000 days in its conflict, the country's citizens have little to celebrate. Russia continues to expend vast resources to make slow but steady territorial gains, consolidating control over nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is grappling with dwindling resources, declining morale and the need to secure more military support to reverse its fortunes. As the war grinds on, both sides seem unwilling to negotiate a ceasefire. President-elect Donald Trump has suggested that he could quickly end the war, though it remains unclear how, or at what cost, such a resolution might come. (Related: Ukraine hopes to win over Trump with its "victory plan" proposal.)
Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, believes Russia's strategy in eastern Ukraine aims to secure as much territory as possible before the shift in leadership in the U.S. on Jan. 20, 2025.
O'Brien speculates that if Trump were to halt military aid to Ukraine, a ceasefire could freeze the conflict, allowing Russia to solidify its territorial gains. For Ukraine, the minimum guarantee it would need to agree to a ceasefire would be assurances that Russia would not attempt any future military conquests.
Ukraine unable to keep up with Russia in long, grueling conflict
In the war's first year, Ukraine lost substantial territory but also achieved key victories. Despite facing a much larger and better-equipped adversary, Ukraine resisted Russia's superior air power and launched successful counteroffensives, regaining some land. These early successes boosted Ukrainian morale and strengthened Western resolve to continue supporting the country.
The second year of the war, marked by the fall of Bakhmut and a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, saw the conflict shift into a long, grueling stalemate. The frontlines were largely static, and Ukraine struggled to maintain its momentum. Toward the end of 2023, delays in approving a $61 billion U.S. aid package for weapons, humanitarian assistance and economic aid compounded Ukraine's challenges.
By early 2024, Russia had captured Avdiivka after months of intense airstrikes, breaching Ukraine’s defenses and forcing Ukrainian troops to stretch even further. When Russia launched an assault on Kharkiv in the northeast, Ukraine found itself under even greater pressure.
Despite these setbacks, Ukraine scored a notable success in August 2024 when it launched a surprise incursion into internationally recognized Russian territory. Ukrainian forces captured significant areas in Russia's Kursk Oblast, which Kyiv is hoping to hold on to and to use as leverage in future peace talks. However, this victory has not stopped Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine's east.
"The Russians have paid a very high price to keep advancing," said Justin Crump, head of the British advisory firm Sibylline. "But they're willing to pay that price in lives to gain a few more meters of territory each day."
The human cost of the war is staggering. Estimates suggest tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of soldiers on both sides have been killed. Russia has gained around 2,455 square kilometers (948 square miles) of territory – around one percent of Ukraine's total pre-2022 territory – this year alone. These incremental gains have had a significant impact on Ukrainian morale due to the regular retreats and the high casualty rates on the frontlines.
With both sides facing mounting losses, the war's outcome remains unclear. As the conflict continues into its third year, the stakes are higher than ever, and the possibility of a negotiated end seems increasingly distant.
Watch this video discussing how the war in Ukraine will end on Russia's terms.
This video is from the channel The Prisoner on Brighteon.com.
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