The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is aware that Ukraine is losing its conflict with Russia, according to the influential magazine Foreign Policy (FP).
According to a piece from the magazine published on Nov. 6, NATO has realized that Kyiv's position is slowly worsening and that it has almost no chance of coming out on top in its conflict with Russia. "NATO sources and Western security officials almost universally agree that Ukraine is slowly losing the war," FP reported.
The magazine noted that an especially difficult winter will make things more difficult for Kyiv. Moreover, Moscow's attacks on Ukrainian ports have also hurt Ukraine's logistics. Nevertheless, Western officials have warned that a Russian victory would solidify the Kremlin's influence in Europe.
Michael Bociurkiw, a lobbyist at the think tank the Atlantic Council, said the Kremlin has noticed a leadership "vacuum" in Kyiv and is "testing for soft tissue" in the West. He noted that Moscow's strategy has been effective as missile strikes across Ukrainian cities have increased the possibility of power and heating shortages as winter approaches.
"The Russian strategy in the east seems to be to freeze people out and heavily bomb their cities and towns. The strategy in the south seems to be to manipulate a key international artery for food," Bociurkiw remarked.
The lobbyist also expressed his belief that Russia has been taking advantage of the vacuum created by the recently concluded United States presidential election, alongside uncertainty about whether Washington's support for Ukraine will survive a change of administration.
"It's been really disheartening to see the lack of spine in Washington and elsewhere," he commented.
According to Signs of the Times (SOTT), Moscow has highlighted Kyiv's aspirations to join NATO as among the main reasons it launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine in February 2022. (Related: Blinken says Ukraine "will become a member of NATO.")
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"Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian military and energy facilities in recent months," SOTT continued. "In April, the [Russian Ministry of Defense] sad they were a response to Kyiv's attempts to target Russian oil infrastructure. [The ministry stressed] that the targeted facilities support the Ukrainian defense industry, and that the strikes do not target civilians."
Given the escalating violence, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has emphasized the importance of both Moscow and Kyiv laying down their arms. But according to FP, this shift could mean a reassessment of Washington's aid to Ukraine. Observers who talked to the magazine have warned that this may signal a weakened American footprint on the global stage – aligning with Trump's America First policy.
King's College London professor Ruth Deyermond warned against a ceasefire, however, claiming that doing so would cause the Americans to lose face. Such a move, she added, would only permit Russia to bolster its military capability in the interim.
"Ukraine losing would look to the rest of the world as if the U.S. was losing to Russia. Any scaling back of U.S. support would also look as if the U.S. had been forced to retreat by Russia," explained Deyermond.
"If there's a ceasefire that effectively allows Russia to hold that territory, it will allow Russia to consolidate its position, reinforcing its military presence. With no war to fight, it would also be able to develop its military presence in Belarus – threatening NATO members in the Baltic region," Deyermond continued. "And an emboldened Russia would be likely to escalate its attacks on European critical infrastructure and increase its interference in many NATO states, including the United States."
SOTT ultimately remarked: "Ukraine was never anything more than a patsy battering ram to try to weaken Russia, an Eastern European Vietnam as it were. Except that it didn't work. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes."
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Watch Scott Ritter discussing Ukraine's waning hope of winning against Russia in this clip.
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