The popular claims that carbon dioxide (CO2) drives global temperature changes presently or throughout the distant past "are based on imagination and climate models full of assumptions."
This is according to an extensive study on the matter recently published by Demetris Koutsoyiannis titled "Stochastic assessment of temperature–CO2 causal relationship in climate from the Phanerozoic through modern times." Koutsoyiannis holds an engineering doctorate and is a professor emeritus of hydrology and hydrosystems at the National Technical University of Athens.
The study is a stochastic assessment determination of the sequencing of CO2 variations versus temperature variations since the 1950s, over the last 2,000 years, and throughout the last 541 million years.
The strong conclusion of the study is that the causality direction certainly shows the temperature changes lead and CO2 changes lag on yearly, decadal, centennial and millennial scales.
The narrative that rising CO2 drives temperature changes can be considered a "non-scientific issue"
The claim that "increases in CO2 drive temperature changes" is merely a "narrative" perpetuated by climate alarmists. The claim that humans, through their emissions by fossil fuel burning, are responsible for the changes seen in climate can be regarded as a "non-scientific issue." (Related: Proof 'climate change' is a hoax: Climate models are engineered with 'dangerous' CO2 warming conclusions built right into the code.)
"The premise of this study is that the climatic system is very complex and subject to perpetual change due to numerous processes, either internal or external to it. The fact that one of them, namely the relationship of climate with atmospheric CO?, is highlighted in the last decades does not correspond to its actual importance as a climate driver," Koutsoyiannis wrote. "The promoted importance is a non-scientific issue, related to the narrative that humans, through their emissions by fossil fuel burning, are responsible for the changes we see in climate."
Koutsoyiannis further explained that changes occurred in the history of the Earth, and the data sets used in the study go back to the Phanerozoic eon, or up to the last 541 million years. The data clearly shows the perpetual nature of changes to the atmosphere.
While there is a close relationship between temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concertation, it is clear that temperature leads and CO? lags.
"That is, the causality direction is T ? [CO2] and not the opposite, as emphatically promoted in the last decades. This is the case not only in the distant past and on large time scales, but also in the recent period covered by reliable instrumental records," Koutsoyiannis wrote. "This happens not only at the monthly or annual time scale, but also at the decadal time scale, which can be resolved by the existing data sets."
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