A recent Rasmussen poll reveals that more than four in ten American voters believe a civil war could break out in the United States within the next five years.
According to the survey conducted among 1,105 likely voters in April, 41 percent of respondents believe a civil war will "likely" happen, 49 percent consider it "unlikely" and 10 percent are "uncertain." Out of the 41 percent, 16 percent deem it "very likely." The results also reveal a stark partisan divide, with 54 percent of Republican voters, 35 percent of Democratic voters, and 32 percent of independent voters foreseeing the possibility of civil conflict.
Recent political developments have also affected voter perceptions of civil war.
A notable 37 percent of voters believe that a victory by President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election would increase the likelihood of a civil war, while 25 percent hold the same view regarding a potential triumph by former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, a majority of Trump voters from the 2020 election (53 percent) believe there would be an impending civil war, particularly if Biden were to win the coming presidential election. (Related: Sarah Palin warns of SECOND CIVIL WAR if political persecution of Donald Trump continues.)
Demographic factors also play an important role in varying levels of apprehension among different racial groups.
For instance, Black (46 percent) and Hispanic (51 percent) voters are more concerned about the possibility of another civil war that White voters (39 percent). Additionally, income levels appeared to influence perceptions, with individuals earning over $200,000 annually being the least likely to anticipate civil strife soon.
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Fictional and non-fictional events fuel the possibility of civil war
These findings reflect the anxieties of approximately 106 million Americans who foresee the possibility of civil war amid escalating tensions across college campuses nationwide, where clashes erupt between pro-Palestine demonstrators, law enforcement, conservative groups and pro-Israel counter-protesters.
The unrest gripping U.S. campuses highlights a growing divide between conservatives and liberals.
Students across numerous schools have organized protests against Israel's actions in Gaza, urging their institutions to sever ties with companies supporting the conflict. Meanwhile, conservative figures have condemned these demonstrations as radical, Marxist and antisemitic.
Moreover, the popularity of Alex Garland's dystopian political action film, "Civil War," adds more fuel to the possibility of civil unrest. The movie, which portrays a fractured America descending into violent chaos with Texas and California joining forces against an authoritarian government in Washington, D.C., has resonated with secessionist groups across the country. The specter of civil war looms large against the backdrop of a divisive presidential race between Biden and Trump.
Daniel Miller, a proponent of Texas secession since 1996 and the president of the Texas Nationalist Movement, sees the movie as stoking discussions around "Texit," Texas' hypothetical exit from the union, by tapping into collective anxieties about national disintegration. Miller, who views it as a plausible depiction of societal breakdown, argued that the portrayal of a president flouting democratic norms resonates today.
Louis Marinelli, the head of Yes California, which advocates for a radical overhaul of the political system, warned the public: "The coming American civil war will be fought between the people of this country based on ideology. We have two diverging and incompatible sets of values in this country that can no longer coexist."
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