Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is warning of an impending collapse of Kyiv's forces as he urgently appeals for the United States to approve a significant military aid package, emphasizing the vulnerability of the country's military and the risk of losing key cities without adequate support. (Related: Sen. Ron Johnson and Elon Musk explain why Ukraine will lose the war in X discussion about Ukraine spending bill)
The scenario is made more complex by an anticipated Russian offensive by late spring or early summer, which is accompanied by uncertainty about the tactics and regions that would be targeted. Military insiders and generals in Ukraine's armed forces paint a bleak picture, highlighting the daunting prospect of front lines collapsing under the weight of Russian
They emphasize the critical need for effective defense technologies and timely support from Western allies, lamenting the inadequacies that have hampered Ukraine's resistance efforts.
Acknowledging instances of successful defense against Russian incursions, these officers stress the necessity for ongoing innovation and adaptability in the face of evolving threats. They underscore the urgent requirement for essential weaponry, including artillery shells and drones, to sustain the defense against Russian forces.
Efforts from European allies to bolster Ukraine's arsenal, such as the proposed artillery ammunition purchase, provide some relief but fall short of addressing the full extent of Ukraine's needs. Additionally, concerns over manpower shortages persist, with delays in implementing recruitment measures exacerbating the strain on frontline defenses.
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The debate over mobilization efforts reflects broader political challenges within Ukraine, with tensions between military imperatives and domestic considerations complicating strategic decision-making.
Despite reassurances from military leadership, skepticism remains regarding the adequacy of manpower preparations in anticipation of a potential escalation in hostilities.
Ukraine's chances of winning is diminishing, if not gone entirely
The long-awaited counteroffensive against Russia last year ended in disappointment, marked by Moscow's conquest of Avdiivka, the biggest territorial gain for Russia in nine months. Zelensky has been compelled to silently acknowledge this new military reality.
The administration of President Joe Biden is currently pivoting toward a strategy of sustaining Ukrainian defenses until after the U.S. presidential elections, hoping to exhaust Russian forces in a protracted war of attrition.
While this strategy appears reasonable, it harbors one crucial implication and a potentially disastrous flaw, aspects not yet receiving serious consideration in public discourse in the West or Ukraine.
The implication of Ukraine adopting a prolonged defensive stance, even if successful, is that the territories currently under Russian occupation are effectively lost. Russia is unlikely to yield these lands at the negotiating table after having secured them on the battlefield.
This doesn't imply Ukraine formally surrendering these territories, as that would be politically unfeasible. However, it does imply that, as Zelensky previously suggested regarding Crimea and the eastern Donbas, the territorial issue may need to be deferred for future negotiations. Such negotiations could persist for decades without resolution or escalate into renewed conflict.
For many Ukrainians, especially in private discussions, the acceptance of territorial losses as the price of peace was a pragmatic view, particularly if reclaiming lost lands through military means seemed improbable. Now, this view is gaining popularity.
However, some proponents of complete Ukrainian victory entertain overly optimistic or fantastical hopes.
For instance, the notion of Russia's defeat and expulsion from Crimea through long-range missile bombardment, as proposed by retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges, is deemed unrealistic.
While Ukraine has achieved some successes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, retaking Crimea would require a monumental amphibious operation beyond current capabilities.
A more realistic approach suggests that by maintaining a defensive posture this year, Ukrainians could inflict significant losses on Russian forces, potentially enabling a successful counterattack in 2025 with increased Western support.
Watch this video featuring residents of Avdiivka describing war crimes committed by Ukrainian troops.
This video is from the High Hopes channel on Brighteon.com.
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