The Baltic nation of Estonia has claimed that Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (VLA) puts forward this claim in a Feb. 13 report, citing Russian plans. Per the said plans, Moscow seeks to double the number of forces stationed along its border with four member nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
"Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so," remarked VLA Director-General Kaupo Rosin. He told reporters that a military attack by Russia is "highly unlikely" in the short term, partly because Moscow has kept troops in Ukraine.
The VLA head reiterated the report's finding that such an attack would remain unlikely if the West matched Russia's buildup of forces, echoing the sentiments of several Western officials. "If we are not prepared, the likelihood [of a Russian attack] would be much higher than without any preparation," Rosin continued. (Related: NATO holds massive military exercise to prepare for planned escalation of war with Russia.)
The Estonian official said he does not expect a Russian breakthrough in Ukraine before its presidential election in March, as Moscow would need to mobilize significantly more troops to achieve that goal. However, he warned that Russia's ability to provide ammunition to its troops is continuing to outweigh that of Kyiv. Rosin ultimately pointed out that unless the West sustains or increases its support toward Ukraine, it is unlikely to be able to change the situation on the battlefield.
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Rosin also put in his two cents on remarks made by former U.S. President Donald Trump about America's allies that fail to spend enough on defense. Russia could do "whatever the hell they want" to these countries, Trump said. According to the Estonian official, "such statements are never helpful."
Estonian report also warns of military buildup along Finnish border
According to the Financial Times (FT), Rosin's analysis of Russia "is closely followed in Western capitals." The VLA director-general continued: "Russians are planning to increase the military force [not only] along the Baltic states' border, but also the Finnish border."
"We will highly likely see an increase of manpower, about doubling, perhaps. We will see an increase in armed personnel carriers, tanks, (and) artillery systems over the coming years."
The intelligence report echoed this prediction, noting that a new army corps consisting of "two or three maneuver units with around a dozen fire support and combat support units" could be deployed along Russia's border with Finland measuring 1,340 kilometers (833 miles). Moreover, the number of Russian troops along the Estonian border could almost double from the 19,000 deployed there before the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in February 2022.
Rosin wasn't the only Western defense official who sounded the alarm on Russia's potential military activity. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen earlier warned that Moscow could possibly launch an attack within three to five years. His warning comes amid "new information" previously unknown to NATO member countries coming to light.
FT also pointed out that Russian weapons factories are working around the clock, enabling Moscow to produce 3.5 million units of ammunition in 2023. This number surpassed Ukraine's own domestic production and supplies provided by the West, according to the VLA's report. The document also warned that this figure will rise to 4.5 million units of ammunition in 2024, further widening the gap between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
"Supplies from Iran and North Korea have enabled [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's army to outgun Ukraine as Western aid for Kyiv begins to waver," the outlet wrote. FT continued, citing the Estonian report: "In a bid to circumvent Western sanctions that limit Moscow's access to machine tools, production lines and factory equipment, Putin has ordered the [modernization] of armored vehicles retrieved from storage and [the aggressive pursuit of] alternative supplies – particularly from China and Hong Kong."
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