Chinese President Xi Jinping is reportedly engaged in a fierce battle with the leadership of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Reports are coming out claiming that he is purging commanders whom he perceives as either unable or unwilling to prepare for war.
According to Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and author of "China Is Going to War," Xi Jinping is on a mission to gain control of the military by appointing officers who are genuinely prepared for the possibility of war. Chang argues that there is a prevailing sentiment among Chinese generals that they are ambivalent about going to war, a factor that Xi aims to rectify.
Since assuming power in 2012, Xi has undertaken a series of military reforms, including personnel cuts, improvements in military-civilian cooperation and structural reshaping. On Dec. 29, 2023, he saw the dismissal of nine senior officers, who were reportedly involved in China's Rocket Force. Reports and U.S. intelligence suggest that these dismissals were rooted in corruption, but Chang argues that this explanation overlooks the primary motive: Xi is likely purging officers who are hesitant to engage in warfare.
Chang cited Air Force General Liu Yazhou, who received a suspended death sentence in February 2022 after warning against an invasion in Taiwan. This case serves as evidence of Xi's intolerance for military leaders expressing reservations about the prospect of war.
Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., perceives the removals as an indication of his concern about the quality of personnel and equipment invested over the past decade. Wuthnow argues that rooting out corruption and preparing for war are aligned with his strategy.
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Wuthnow raises concerns about the reliability of the equipment. "If that equipment malfunctions or can't be relied on, how confident can Xi and his colleagues be that the PLA will prevail?" This question underscores the gravity of Xi Jinping's mission to gain military control.
Chang believes separate wars could merge into World War III
China has been involved in low-level hostilities with neighboring countries, including India, Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan. The heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait have raised concerns, with some experts speculating about the possibility of a Chinese invasion. (Related: Domestic crisis may force China to invade Taiwan, lawmaker warns.)
The recent confrontational rhetoric, particularly regarding Taiwan, has fueled speculation about the military intentions of China. In recent years, Xi has directed China to pour billions more dollars into transforming the PLA into a force capable of invading Taiwan.
In a New Year's address, he emphasized the determination of China for reunification and conveyed a similar message during a face-to-face meeting with U.S. President Biden at the APEC summit in November 2023.
Chang highlighted the significance of these statements, suggesting that they may serve as markers for political enemies and potentially escalate tensions, leading China into a war.
While some experts believe Xi is more cautious after Russia invades Ukraine, others, like Chang, argue that conditions are ripe for a third world war. Chang draws parallels to historical conflicts, emphasizing the possibility of various regional conflicts merging into a global confrontation.
"Remember, in the 1930s, there were separate wars that merged into what we now call World War II. The same dynamics exist today, and it's entirely possible, and some people can even argue that it's probable that these will merge into a global conflict," Chang said.
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