The war between Russia and Ukraine has become a conflict of attrition, without any doubt, and that means things are not looking good for Kyiv.
According to reports this week, it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep Ukraine's military supplied with ammunition -- so much so, in fact, that Kyiv's forces are blowing through it faster than the United States and its NATO allies can manufacture and deliver it.
NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg noted in a briefing on Monday that the West is now in a race with Moscow to manufacture and deliver ammunition to the front lines of the conflict. He also noted that NATO nations are now in a "race of logistics" in terms of supplying ammunition and other arms at a moment when fighting is intensifying on a World War II level. This comes as "Russia seems to have already launched a large-scale offensive in Ukraine...?sending in thousands and thousands more troops," Stoltenberg explained.
"It is clear that we are in the race of logistics. Key capabilities like ammunition?.?.?.?must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield." He also noted emphatically that "a war of attrition becomes a battle of logistics," while acknowledging that "Yes, we have a challenge. Yes, we have a problem?.?.?.?but we have a strategy to tackle that."
In some ways, he seems to be indicating that Russia has already seized the initiative, but reports coming from the region suggest otherwise, despite an impending dearth of ammunition.
Nevertheless, according a report in the Financial Times, even though Western nations are pouring weapons and ammunition into Ukraine, Russia still is seen as having the advantage in terms of manpower and firepower:
Ukraine’s ammunition shortages were "acute", a senior western intelligence official told the Financial Times, adding that the speed of western supplies would be critical to the outcome of Russia’s attempt to regain the initiative in the war.
Kyiv’s forces are estimated to be firing more than 5,000 artillery rounds every day — equal to a smaller European country’s orders in an entire year in peacetime. Russia is estimated to be firing four times that amount each day as it seeks to gain territory in the east of the country and deploy tens of thousands of newly trained conscripts in the war.
"The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions and depleting allied stockpiles. The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain," Stoltenberg noted further.
At the same time, Joe Biden’s failed presidency has ushered in the perfect storm of circumstances that have put America more at risk today than the country has been since the Cold War, and that’s not an exaggeration.
When Biden’s handlers decided to pick a side and supply American weapons to one of the most corrupt governments on the planet in its war against Russia, they did so without stopping to think about how that decision would negatively impact our offensive and defensive military capabilities, and at a time when China is just waiting for the right moment to invade Taiwan.
Bloomberg Quint reported: “America is following an ‘arsenal of democracy’ strategy in Ukraine: It has avoided direct intervention against the Russian invaders, while working with allies and partners to provide the Kyiv government with money and guns. That strategy, reminiscent of U.S. support for Britain in 1940-41, has worked wonders. Yet as the war reaches a critical stage, with the Russians preparing to consolidate their grip on eastern Ukraine, the arsenal of democracy is being depleted.”
While, of course, the depleted arsenal will also have a negative impact on Ukraine, whose forces are burning through nearly everything they are being given on a daily basis, American national security is also being put at risk, and needlessly so. What’s more, the situation is exposing a U.S. weakness should there be another great-power war we have to fight at some near-future point.
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