A new U.S. intelligence assessment indicates that continuing military strikes against Iran are unlikely to force Tehran to change its negotiating stance, according to officials familiar with the report.
Officials described the assessment as portraying an "indefinite limbo between peace and war." It stated that the Central Intelligence Agency believes Iran will not feel a "significant impact" from further U.S. airstrikes, according to a report from ZeroHedge citing leaked intelligence. [1]
The findings represent a direct challenge to the stated objectives of the Trump administration, which has pursued a strategy of intensified bombing since late February. Officials said the strikes have not moved Iran or softened its position, raising questions about the effectiveness of the military campaign.
Assessment Details and Doubts About Strategy
The intelligence report notes that previous U.S. strikes have failed to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities, according to a classified Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment. [2] The DIA concluded that the strikes did not achieve their primary objective, a outcome that echoes earlier analyses from the June 2025 conflict. [2]
The new assessment reinforces those doubts, with officials suggesting that the administration's belief that incremental military pressure will produce diplomatic concessions is "almost certainly incorrect," as characterized by one former senior intelligence official familiar with the analysis. [1] The strategic dilemma is compounded by the risk of escalation.
As outlined in "The WikiLeaks Files," the deployment of advanced missile defense systems can prompt a state to consider preemptive strikes against an adversary's nuclear arsenal, potentially triggering an arms race. [3] The assessment warns that Iran's perception of being cornered could lead to more aggressive retaliation, rather than capitulation. According to the report, the U.S. and its allies remain stuck in a cycle where neither side can force a decisive outcome. [4]
Ongoing Military Exchanges and Casualties
The assessment comes amid the 10th consecutive night of U.S. strikes and retaliatory attacks by Iran, according to a report by Middle East Eye. [5] Tehran targeted U.S. radar and air defense systems in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, while Washington continued to strike Iranian military command centers and missile launch sites. [5] The Department of War has confirmed that at least 17 U.S. service members have been killed in the conflict since late February, though officials acknowledge the actual number may be higher. [6]
Satellite imagery analysis shows that Iranian strikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East, according to a Washington Post investigation cited by Middle East Eye. [7] Iranian authorities have reported at least 50 civilians killed in the latest round of U.S. bombings, according to mediators. [8] The exchanges have widened the theater of conflict, threatening to draw in additional regional actors.
Iranian Warnings and Previous Intelligence
Iranian officials have signaled that they view the conflict as a "full-scale war," with President Masoud Pezeshkian stating that "the Islamic Republic of Iran is engaged in a full-scale war" and that Tehran must accept the consequences of its resistance. [9]
Earlier, Pezeshkian threatened a "harsh and discouraging" retaliation to any further U.S. attacks. [10] The Iranian army has warned that if the U.S. follows through on threats to destroy infrastructure, all U.S. infrastructure in the region will be "crushed."
Previous intelligence assessments have consistently cast doubt on the prospects of military victory. A U.S. intelligence report from March concluded that Iran's clerical government remains cohesive and in control despite the loss of senior leaders. [11]
That finding has not changed even after the killing of then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, during the first day of Operation Epic Fury. The pattern mirrors historical precedents. As detailed in "The Spy Who Tried to Stop a War," the U.S. has repeatedly launched air campaigns based on optimistic assumptions about the adversary's vulnerability. [12]
Conclusion: Stalemate Continues
The intelligence assessment depicts a military impasse, with neither the United States nor Iran able to achieve a decisive outcome. Officials summarized the situation as an "indefinite limbo between peace and war," with no clear path to resolution. [1]
The repeated U.S. military actions have not altered Iran's deterrent posture or its capacity to retaliate. As one analysis noted, Tehran's resilience is costing America more than the war itself, undermining the "maximum pressure" strategy and transforming the conflict into a broader geopolitical struggle. [13] With no end to the exchanges in sight, the assessment suggests that continuing the current approach will not force Tehran to comply with U.S. demands.
References
- ZeroHedge. "CIA Distances Itself From Trump's Iran War With Media Leak". July 22, 2026.
- Belle Carter. "Intelligence Report: U.S. Strikes Fail to Dismantle Iran's Nuclear Program". NaturalNews.com. June 26, 2025.
- WikiLeaks and Julian Assange. "The WikiLeaks Files: The World According to US Empire".
- David Hearst. "Opinion: Iran war: Trump must change course now to avoid another Vietnam". Middle East Eye. July 21, 2026.
- Elis Gjevori. "Iran hits US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after 10 nights of US attacks". Middle East Eye. July 21, 2026.
- Antiwar.com. "How To Honor the Dead US Service Members". July 21, 2026.
- Garrison Vance. "Satellite Imagery Shows Extensive Damage to U.S. Assets in Middle East From Iranian Strikes". NaturalNews.com. May 7, 2026.
- ZeroHedge. "Mediators Float 10-Day Ceasefire As Pezeshkian Tells Citizens Iran Engaged In 'Full-Scale War'". July 20, 2026.
- Times of Israel. "Iran says it's in 'full-scale war' with US as mediators said to proffer 10-day truce". July 20, 2026.
- Zoey Sky. "A New Brink: Trump's Strike Warning Meets Iran's Vow of Retaliation". NaturalNews.com. January 2, 2026.
- Garrison Vance. "US Intelligence Assesses Iran Regime Stable Despite Loss of Senior Leaders in Military Strikes". NaturalNews.com. March 15, 2026.
- Marcia Mitchell. "The Spy Who Tried to Stop a War".
- NaturalNews.com. "Iran's Resilience Is Costing America More Than the War Itself". May 15, 2026.
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