- Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) concluded with 80% to 95% certainty that SARS-CoV-2 likely originated from a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), based on classified and public data, including evidence of gain-of-function research and safety violations.
- The German government allegedly withheld the BND’s 2021 assessment, codenamed “Project Saaremaa,” due to geopolitical concerns, particularly the potential impact on relations with China.
- The BND’s findings, shared with U.S. intelligence agencies, influenced a shift in the CIA’s stance toward a lab-leak theory. However, prominent virologists like Christian Drosten and geopolitical considerations contributed to the suppression of the report.
- The revelations have reignited demands for an independent investigation into COVID-19’s origins, with the U.S. and U.K. governments revisiting their assessments and the WHO facing scrutiny over its earlier dismissal of the lab-leak theory.
- The BND’s findings highlight the challenges of pursuing truth amid geopolitical tensions and scientific controversy, emphasizing the need for transparency, accountability and improved biosecurity to prevent future pandemics.
In a stunning revelation that could reshape the global understanding of the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, German intelligence allegedly concealed an internal assessment concluding that the virus likely originated from a Wuhan laboratory. According to a joint investigation by Die Zeit and Sueddeutscher Zeitung, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) estimated an 80% to 95% probability that SARS-CoV-2 leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). This bombshell report, published on March 12, 2025, raises critical questions about transparency, geopolitical influence and the ongoing quest for truth in the wake of the pandemic.
The BND’s secret “Project Saaremaa”
The BND’s investigation, codenamed “Project Saaremaa,” began in early 2020 as the world grappled with the emerging pandemic. Intelligence agents reportedly gathered unpublished data and documents from Wuhan, including research from the lab of Shi Zhengli, a prominent virologist at the WIV. The BND’s analysis, which incorporated both classified and publicly available scientific literature, pointed to a high likelihood of a lab-related origin.
Key to the BND’s assessment were findings related to gain-of-function research—experiments designed to enhance the transmissibility or virulence of viruses. The agency reportedly uncovered evidence of safety violations at the WIV, further bolstering the case for a lab leak. By late 2021, additional intelligence reinforced the BND’s confidence in its conclusion.
Despite the compelling evidence, the German government chose not to publicize the findings. Sources suggest that political considerations, including concerns over damaging relations with China, played a significant role in the decision to withhold the report.
Geopolitical fallout and scientific pushback
The BND’s findings were reportedly shared with U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, in late 2024. This disclosure coincided with a shift in the U.S. intelligence community’s stance on COVID-19 origins. In January 2025, the CIA updated its position, stating that a lab leak was “more likely” than a natural origin, albeit with “low confidence.”
However, the BND’s assessment faced resistance from prominent virologists, including Christian Drosten, Germany’s equivalent of Anthony Fauci. Drosten, who has long advocated for a natural origin theory, participated in private discussions with U.S. health officials early in the pandemic to manage speculation about the WIV. His influence, along with broader geopolitical concerns, may have contributed to the suppression of the BND’s findings.
Global repercussions and the fight for transparency
The revelations have reignited calls for a transparent and independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19. In the United States, outgoing National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has tasked the Office of the Director of National Intelligence with convening a panel to revisit the pandemic’s origins. Similarly, the U.K. government has pledged to “continually review” its assessment of the virus’s origins.
The World Health Organization (WHO), which previously dismissed the lab-leak theory as “extremely unlikely,” now faces renewed scrutiny. Critics argue that the WHO’s 2021 investigation was inadequate, with the lab-leak hypothesis dismissed in just a few pages of a lengthy report. As the BND prepares to brief the WHO on its findings, the global health body may be forced to reconsider its stance.
Why this matters today
The suppression of the BND’s assessment underscores the challenges of pursuing truth in an era of geopolitical tensions and scientific controversy. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives and disrupted economies worldwide, yet critical questions about its origins remain unanswered.
Historically, the origins of pandemics have been shrouded in mystery and misinformation. The 1918 influenza pandemic, for example, was initially attributed to Spain, earning it the misnomer “Spanish flu,” despite evidence suggesting it originated elsewhere. Similarly, the true origins of HIV/AIDS were not fully understood until years after the virus emerged.
The COVID-19 pandemic has followed a similar pattern, with early narratives favoring a natural origin theory while alternative explanations were dismissed or suppressed. The BND’s findings, if confirmed, could mark a turning point in our understanding of the pandemic and hold significant implications for global health policy, biosecurity and international relations.
As the world continues to grapple with the aftermath of COVID-19, the pursuit of truth remains paramount. The revelations about the BND’s assessment serve as a reminder that transparency and accountability are essential to preventing future pandemics and rebuilding public trust in science and governance.
In the words of one anonymous intelligence source, “The truth has a way of coming out, no matter how hard it’s suppressed.” For the millions affected by COVID-19, that truth cannot come soon enough.
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