On a topic like Bitcoin, it's important to start with a disclaimer: I own zero Bitcoin. I used to mine Bitcoin using excess solar energy that I had installed on our offices in Arizona, and I later sold that Bitcoin for physical gold. Thus, I actually turned sunlight into gold, via Bitcoin. But right now, I hold no Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, which is one of the reasons why I can write about it without the cloud of a strong emotional investment in Bitcoin's outcome.
With that said, I do see a very high likelihood that Bitcoin could temporarily skyrocket to $100,000 as the U.S. dollar collapses due to the total blowout Federal Reserve fiat currency printing orgy that's now under way. The dollar is being utterly obliterated, and both Trump and the big banksters are drunk with helicopter money. There is no way out now other than massive money printing, followed by extreme currency devaluation and ultimately hyperinflation of the prices of consumer goods (yes, even though deflation is the current trend, all the money printing will inevitably result in hyperinflation before long).
Notably, I am not buying Bitcoin and I don't recommend anyone speculate on it unless you have a huge appetite for risk. Even though I can now see Bitcoin hitting $100,000 per coin as the dollar collapses, no cryptocurrency is a long-term store of value. For long-term value, you need to look at gold, silver and land... things that are physical and can't simply vanish if the power grid fails or the internet stops functioning.
Bitcoin, like any cryptocurrency, goes to zero if the power grid collapses or the internet infrastructure stops functioning. Then again, if you find yourself in a scenario with no electricity and no telecommunications, your online Bitcoin wallet might be the least of your concerns, as you should be strapping on a chest rig and grabbing your rifle to prepare for the inevitable zombie apocalypse.
Why I believe Bitcoin will outlast the collapse of the dollar
As I point out in my podcast below, I now believe Bitcoin will outlast the dollar, which means I believe the dollar will collapse before Bitcoin collapses. However, Bitcoin is only about 12 years old, and the current dollar-based fiat currency system is over a century old, although during that time the dollar has lost perhaps 98% of its value (it might be 99% by the time you read this, who knows...), which means even the dollar isn't much of a store of value.
Gold, on the other hand, has been around for perhaps 12 billion years (maybe longer, I'm not sure exactly how early in the cosmos the heavier elements like gold were being produced through fusion processes in exploding stars), which means gold is probably at least a billion times older than Bitcoin, and gold is an element of the cosmos which means it isn't going to vanish unless all the laws of atomic physics are suddenly altered, in which case you and I would both be obliterated anyway.
For anyone confused by my position here, note carefully that I'm not a "Bitcoin cultist" who believes that Bitcoin is the answer to everything, and I've been extremely critical of previous Bitcoin bubbles in the past, as many readers know. Thus, my analysis that Bitcoin could be headed for $100,000 as the dollar collapses is not something I've ever predicted before, and it's not based on hope or irrationality. Rather, it's based on the idea that people will be jumping ship, fleeing the dollar and looking for any safe haven that might preserve their wealth, even for a short period of time. As dollar-denominated bank accounts start to get wiped out, and physical gold is impossible to source, people will have very few options remaining. In that scenario, Bitcoin is an "any port in a storm" solution. (And physical gold and silver will be all but impossible to find.)
Listen to my recent podcast, below, for a more detailed discussion of the concept of "store of value."
People will try to jump to Bitcoin as they see the dollar collapsing
In effect, Bitcoin will be seen by many as a last-ditch safe haven that might offer protection from the rapid collapse of the dollar, and so when this panic moment arrives, there will be a very strong fear-based dumping of dollars into Bitcoin. Note that during this same time, U.S. Treasury bills will be paying strongly negative interest rates -- such as negative 5%, for example -- and many people will see Bitcoin as a far better alternative than a guaranteed 5% loss in treasuries.
Those who are positioned to sell their Bitcoin into this fear-based rally will do extraordinarily well, but it will require extraordinary timing and extreme self-discipline to sell during the Bitcoin rally. It goes against the intuition of most people who hold Bitcoin. And if the dollar is collapsing, it would be foolish to sell Bitcoin for dollars anyway, unless the seller has another plan to quickly trade dollars for something else (such as a large farm with serious acreage, which is one of the best ideas of all).
In essence, when the time comes to sell your Bitcoin and take profits, you won't want to sell your Bitcoin... at least not for dollars. And that's part of the reason why people will be willing to trade more and more dollars for Bitcoin... because dollars will be rapidly losing their real-world value.
Ultimately, when Bitcoin is $100,000 per coin, it doesn't mean it's actually "worth" what you might think $100,000 is worth today. Depending on the degree of currency debasement, $100,000 might only cover one month's rent. In fact, if the hyperinflation really accelerates, Bitcoin could be $1 million per coin, denominated in US dollars, but then again gold might be $100,000 an ounce at the same time because the dollar is losing so much value.
Thus, my warning to anyone considering playing the Bitcoin roulette wheel during these times is that unless you time it just right, you might be left holding Bitcoin long past the peak and well into a sharp decline. This could happen literally overnight. For example, what happens if the U.S. government announces an oil-backed cryptocurrency that's also backed by the Fed? Or if China announces a gold-backed hybrid crypto solution? Literally in a matter of hours, you could see a mad rush away from Bitcoin into a new crypto that's backed by a government (even though any serious Bitcoin holder would know to avoid government-run cryptocurrencies for all the obvious reasons, but the uninformed masses might find that a government-backed crypto sounds compelling).
As quickly as Bitcoin goes to $100,000, it could also plummet back to just $1,000... or even close to zero. This is why I'm personally avoiding any sort of speculation in Bitcoin, which also allows me to analyze the Bitcoin situation without having any emotional involvement in its outcome. (Word of advice: Be cautious taking Bitcoin advice from people who own Bitcoin. They are by definition not likely to exhibit truly neutral clear thinking on the matter, although many of them do of course have far greater technical knowledge on the subject of cryptocurrency.)
You might say that since I own gold, I could therefore be just as biased about gold. Except that I never plan to sell my gold, so I'm not a gold speculator. I hold no gold "paper" or gold futures or options of any kind. No gold mining stocks. Instead, I have physical gold coins, and they're not for sale.
So no, I have no emotional distortions when it comes to gold prices or the future of gold. The whole point of owning gold is to eliminate fluctuations of value because gold is a very stable store of value that buys basically the same thing today as it did a hundred years ago, ounce per ounce.
In fact, people who are serious about owning gold don't even talking about how many "dollars" worth of gold they own. Instead, they talk about ounces of gold or bars of gold. The dollar value is irrelevant, since as the dollar goes to zero, the dollar-denominated value of gold heads toward infinity. When the Fed is printing trillions in counterfeit currency, it's pointless to even characterize the value of gold in dollars.
The far greater risk is found in holding dollars... people who do that will lose everything
Finally, the biggest risk is to hold dollars, not Bitcoin or gold or anything else. The dollar will eventually go to zero. There is a 100% chance that this will occur. Holding dollars is financial suicide, and those who hold dollars will be financially obliterated by the coming dollar collapse.
When that day comes, every asset you are holding in dollars will go to zero. Your savings account, your check accounts, the cash under your mattress, etc. On that day, I would much rather be holding Bitcoin than dollars. Gold and silver would be even better.
One more thought... when the day comes that you want to "cash out" your Bitcoin and trade it for something else, ask yourself this very important question: What assets will even exist that could be traded for Bitcoin anyway? Fiat currencies will be in the dumps. Gold and silver will be extremely scarce. It would be stupid to trade Bitcoin for dollars. So you'd better start thinking about things like trading Bitcoin for land, commercial buildings, residential real estate, firearms collections and perhaps even museum-quality fine art that you can peddle to some globalist for gold.
Seriously, you need to get your head out of the "Bitcoin for dollars" game, because when the day comes that your Bitcoin is worth a fortune in dollars, you won't want dollars.
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