Remember the original pandemic projection model we released on March 5th? That model, with details shown below, projected 2.1 million deaths in the United States by July 4th if aggressive steps weren’t taken to achieve strong social isolation (i.e. halting all domestic air travel, blocking public transport, etc.).
Fortunately for us all, President Trump and local mayors and governors have all taken various forms of action since that day, helping achieve some measure of social isolation. That means the original projection of 2.1 millions deaths is now obsolete, and that President Trump, through his actions, has probably saved many hundreds of thousands of lives.
However, we’re not out of the woods yet. And the number of fatalities being reported right now across America is actually exceeding my original projections by as much as 25%.
Check out this small table, showing the projected fatalities vs. the actual fatalities from March 6th through March 16th.
This shows deaths from the coronavirus in the USA:
As you can see, the model is tracking remarkably well with the fatalities we’re seeing in real time. And this was all pre-published on March 6th.
Here’s how the map of infections looks for America right now:
And here’s a chart of the rise in coronavirus deaths in the USA, via Worldometers.info:
Where do these numbers take us? Well, absent any strong social distancing, they would have taken us to millions of deaths in the USA by July. Although that scenario is now obsolete, it’s important to look at where we were originally headed, according to the first model:
By April 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
By May 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
By June 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
By July 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
What’s concerning to me is that we are still tracking with this model in terms of the number of people dying each day. What we hope to see is divergence away from the model so that infections and deaths are lower.
That will happen within 3-4 weeks, most likely, as the strong social distancing measures put into place over the last few days start to kick in.
Sadly, many conservative publishers and Trump supporters are all now in a state of total denial about the coronavirus, calling it a “hoax” or “sham.” So they are teaching their followers to be complacent and unprepared. This will only cause the coronavirus wave to last longer and kill more people, most like killing more Trump supporters themselves.
So right now we are watching conservative publishers and pundits in America transform into a kind of pro-Trump suicide cult characterized by bad math and scientific illiteracy.
Fortunately, Trump is now taking this seriously, even if many of his followers aren’t.
Because of the widespread scientific illiteracy among many prominent conservatives, we are now facing a situation where their inability to do basic math is placing the entire conservative movement at risk of mass casualties, since dead people only vote when they’re Democrats, of course.
We each need to do our part to endure a “lockdown” to stop this coronavirus from killing millions. I’m willing to do my part, but many conservatives are not. Listen to this podcast to learn more:
If you want to live, read Pandemic.news.