Saturday morning I was about to write this story about how hospital beds would be overrun by mid to late May, when I discovered someone else had beat me to the punch. A Zero Hedge story, linked by Drudge, cites Liz Specht (@LizSpecht), who has a PhD in biology and works at the Good Food Institute. She lays out the math which explains why hospital beds will be overrun by around May 8th.
I also find it confirming that other PhDs are coming to same same mathematical conclusions I’ve reached as a food scientist and published science author myself. It turns out that all the really smart science nerds are reaching the same conclusion on this: It’s gonna be way, way worse than any mainstream source is admitting.
My own model, detailed at this link, predicts the following situation for May 8th if nothing is done to stop this projection (i.e. if no harsh travel restrictions are put in place):
– 174,362 actively infectious Americans
– Exactly cumulative 15,000 deaths in America
– 121,848 recovered Americans who are no longer infectious
These numbers are slightly lower than what Liz Specht predicts in her own work. My pandemic projection model is intentionally more conservative in the numbers, and it makes more complex assumptions than Specht’s work. For example, my model calculates 14-day lag times for the infected, and it spreads out the R0 infections over the entire 14 days. This results in a slower projected spread but, I would suggest, represents a better model of how the virus actually spreads.
I’m not disagreeing with Specht here, as she has done excellent work. However, I would offer an alternative view based on a more complex model that I think may be more accurate. This model predicts the hospital beds won’t really be overrun until the end of May.
Here’s what my model shows on May 15th, for example, assuming no strong interventions that achieve isolation (travel restrictions, etc.):
– 323,245 actively infectious Americans
– 28,170 cumulative deaths in America
– 226,804 recovered Americans who are no longer infectious
And by May 30th, here’s what the projections show:
– 1.2 million actively infectious Americans
– 107,224 cumulative deaths in America
– 854,542 recovered Americans who are no longer infectious
We also know that about 20% of the actively infected will need hospitalization.
On May 15th, we have 323,245 actively infected people, and 20% of that is 64,649. America can handle 64,649 hospitalizations. Thus, it doesn’t look like hospitals will be overrun by May 15th, at least not according to this model.
But by May 30th, we have 1.2 million actively infectious people in America, meaning we need 240,000 hospitalizations during that time. That’s where I see the breaking point of the U.S. hospital system.
Thus, with respect to Dr. Specht, I would suggest that May 30th is a more accurate target date for the U.S. hospital system to be overrun.
If you still have a functioning Twitter account — mine has been banned by the techno-fascist asshat Jack Dorsey for a very long time for talking about vaccines — send @LizSpecht this URL, please, so she can take a look at this model.
I’ve only used an R0 value of 1.82 for my projections, while the real virus spread an amplification factor of something closer to 4.5 or perhaps even 6.6. This means my pandemic projection model is deliberately erring on the side of being too conservative. I’ve even publicly admitted this, explaining that if I used the more accurate R0 values, the projections become “apocalyptic” and far beyond the willingness of anyone to grasp.
Indeed, we are living in a time when most people can’t do math, and almost no one can accept reality. So we have to spoon feed little bits of reality to them, one piece at a time, until they can finally come to face the full picture without psychologically rejecting it. I apologize if this sounds condescending, but if you’re smart like me, you already know that most people can’t handle the truth on this.
Even now, my own text messages are blowing up with comments from people who claim my projections are “too scary,” even when I use the lower figures as assumptions. This just goes to underscore the state of mental fragility that now defines our “snowflake” society where everyone claims to be triggered by anything they don’t want to hear.
I keep telling people the virus doesn’t care about your feelings, but few seem to be willing to listen. It makes them uncomfortable to think about any future that doesn’t feel nice.
When I tell them I’m really, really good at math and aced the mathematics sections of college entrance exams, they think I’m being arrogant and condescending.
When I implore them to stock up on survival supplies and prepare for the collapse of society as we know it today, they tell me everything will be fine in 90 days and demand to know why I’m “attacking Trump.” (Huh?)
So we’re way beyond the point of rationality here. We’ve in full-blown la la land. We are living in the land of delusion where truth is treason and logic is a thought crime.
Aside from myself and Liz Specht, there’s another person who really, really gets all this. His name is Chris Martenson with PeakProsperity.com. He even uses the phrase, “Don’t Test, Don’t Tell” which I coined at Natural News in this article on Feb. 24. It was also the title of this podcast we published 12 days ago. Watch his video here (and someone please tell him to start a channel on Brighteon.com so that when he gets banned by YouTube, he can still reach people via Brighteon):
Chris Martenson and I have a very similar view on the coronavirus, and we’re both scientists who have a strong understanding of mathematics and biology. He’s been spot on from day one. I listen to his podcasts each day, and I often find him saying the exact same things I’m thinking. (I should invite him for an interview…)
If you want to hear my podcasts, which are a whole lot more opinionated and occasionally hilarious, check out the Health Ranger Report channel on Brighteon.com where you’ll find 3 new podcasts each weekday, much like the one shown below. Unlike Chris who has a more academic delivery style and tries to avoid being banned by YouTube, I don’t give a crap anymore since I’m banned everywhere, so I just lay it out in a completely uncensored fashion that sometimes borders on hilarious or rude, depending on the day:
Finally, if you want to live, read Pandemic.news where we combine all the videos, articles, science articles, statistics and downloadable MP3 audio podcasts in one place, so you can get informed and possibly survive this with your life intact.